Getting Rich off Hype Cycles

A lot of you are seeing a hype cycle play out in real time for the first time. I say in real time because the speed of this one is astonishing. The last hype cycle we had was mobile and it took ages. Hardware needed to roll out across the globe and it came in two waves - pre iPhone and post. Many of y’all were around at the time. If you missed the bus that time don’t worry. A lot of people never made any money off the Internet either. But this time can be different. The AI ship is steaming away from the harbor. If you jump on a speedboat and undertake some daring stunts you can still catch it. But you will have to move fast. If not, you could drive 200 miles to the next port and catch it there in three days (maybe). After that there are no more chances and all the good cabins will already be taken.

And yet, even though all of you can see the huge ass steamer pulling away from the dock, many are still asking - is this real? Or some of you shrugging your shoulders and saying nah, they’ll be back soon, it’s only a short cruise. My brother in Christ, that steamer is provisioned for deep blue water and is going far far beyond the horizon. How can you tell? - you ask.

I can tell because this shit is on my TV. Noida news anchors are discussing Deepseek.

“Ok”, you say, “but I mean it’s too late already”. No it isn’t. The steamer has just left the dock. This is a paradigm shift happening in front of our eyes and I know it’s a lot to take in. But for perspective I can share that in 2001 many thought that it’s over for the Internet. There was the hype and then the dotcom bust and everyone thought “that’s it. now we carry on with life as usual.”

What people didn’t understand is that these new paradigms can’t take over immediately. They cling to the surface for a while and then they go deep into the foundations of society. The internet is everywhere now. It is almost impossible to escape it. When it came to India in 1995, it was slow, expensive and only available in a few areas. By 2015 (conveniently rounding to around the time of Jio), it had arrived everywhere. In 20 years it took over India. Mobiles took even less time. AI is going to take even less time.

And yes, everyone is going to have AI in their pocket. And all software will be rewritten for AI. I was at the Peak XV hackathon the other week and it struck me that everything is going to be rewritten for agents. I saw someone demo ‘parental controls but with agents’ and the penny dropped. WE ARE SO EARLY.

Now this is how hype cycles work - there’s a lot of enthusiasm at first. The technologists and engineers see something amazing and they keep experimenting with new products. At some point the finance bros hear about it. If there’s even the hint of a story there, they hype it to their HNI clients who are sitting on so much cash that they don’t know what to do with it. The finance guys know that all these people need is the right story and they start hyping it. The money starts flowing in, raising valuations across the board. At some point the bill comes due (ie fund cycle has to close but there’s no greater fools left in the private markets) and everything goes to shit.

But then, if it is really the case that this tech is going to be in everyone’s pockets, no one can stop it. Booms and busts will come and go but the march of civilisation is inexorable. Your job is to survive in a manner that allows you to extract value from this.

Actionable Advice.

So, actionable advice

• we’re still way early. We haven’t seen the first AI valuation crash yet. You must jump in now if you want to still be amongst the early movers. If you’re in ML/DL and you’re working at some enterprise (exceptionally well paid people are excused) then you’re not even in the game. You will have to find some startup that’s growing and jump in.
  • Everything is going to get faster and cheaper - there is a lot of money to be made if inference can be faster and cheaper. Faster, cheaper, better cameras powered instagram and all the chinese dance bar apps. There is always money in getting stuff into the hands of the proletariat. Especially stuff that makes them look good. Or smart. Or allows them to be lazy.
  • Whatever you can think of as the limits of this, raise them by two orders of magnitude - anyone remember ‘640k should be enough for anyone’? that was Bill Gates. TCP/IP started with a few dozen machines and now there are trillions, when the Internet was supposed to be ‘just a fad’
• Take risk, wherever you can find it
  • being a founder is amazing. It means you will capture more of the value. however, you get far fewer shots at this than everyone else. you can’t just turn your company off and go do something else without upsetting investors. they want to see you die for your (their) startup. So don’t get too hung up on whether you’re a founder or a founding member. If you can get past Series A with 2% equity or more you should be fine.
  • take as much equity as you possibly can. If you’re young and single take only survival money and turn the rest into equity. I feel a little bad giving this advice because in a hype cycle you will also get grifters and ethical morons who will steal your ESOPs from you and that’s a whole other game. Hopefully governance gets better on this front.

I know your Indian middle class upbringing is screaming at you to find safe haven, but if you have any risk taking ability whatsoever, then go for it. Go into debt if you have to, to quote that terrible meme.

• the well capitalised will do better - if you see a company with excellent traction and good funding, go for it. It doesn’t matter what part of the AI stack it’s on.
• the deeply skilled will do better - when the paradigm shifts, being able to operate in the new paradigm separates the winners from the losers. For how long did people who just know php make a good living? A much better living than those who didn’t (on average?) That’s the power of being able to operate in the new paradigm. You should probably be spending your weekends learning ML / GenAI / fine tuning / LORA etc.
• play the long game
  • find your tribe. Y’all going to be navigating this together. Some of y’all going to hurt yourselves. When you do, you should have someone to give you cover. When you do well, make sure others do well as well. Team up with other engineers and also sales and marketing, business types and so on. Winning big here is going to be a team sport. Don’t be a hero.
  • we’re still so early. until death all defeat is psychological, so don’t optimise for the short term. There’s going to be a lot of money made (and lost) along the way. Your job is to stay in the game.
  • there are other ways to get rich in the hype cycle than IPO. There will be a tonne of acquisitions, so even if your company doesn’t make it, for the next few years it will be enough to be a good acquisition target. There are two ways to create this - by building a kickass team and by creating IP. In the hype cycle, even acquihires can generate meaningful wealth.
• read some science fiction. If you don’t know what the Kardashev scale is, now’s a good time to start reading sci-fi. The danger in the hype cycle is not having a picture of the new world being born. If you can draw a picture of the future, then you’ll be more agressive in pursuing your ideas. There are going to be plenty of ideas that tackle the surface structure problems - layering AI onto a non-AI world. However, there are AI-native ideas also waiting to be born. If you can spot these early, you increase your chances of winning.
• go where money is being made
  • I remember talking once to a GP in a fund. He made his millions running a 35 person email management software company in Connecticut. But he was close to where the action was and where the wallets were so he could see a need and fill it. The US will always make more millionaires than we will in India, but it’s 2025 and hopefully getting access to those customers and dollars is still possible. In any case, there are a million opportunities if only one knows how to look.

FDs are safe when the market is returning 13%. When the market is returning 40% they’re the very opposite of safe. We’re at the start of a paradigm shift, a secular change in the way work is done, business is done and life is lived. Pay attention to the signs. And go catch that boat.